Political Demography of Conflict in Mali

This study examines the relationship between conflict and demographic trends in Mali – notably fertility, mortality, and migration. Mali’s demographics are similar to those in neighbouring Niger, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, and reflect broader trends across Sub-Saharan Africa: rapid population growth, high fertility rates, poor government services and a surging urban, unemployed youth population. Those aggregate factors may put a country at greater risk of conflict, but, contrary to expectations, they do not actually offer a causal explanation for the conflict in Mali.